Gamblers Guide to NFL Week 8

Dak Prescott

A lot of small away favourites this week.   Bet on a bunch of them with the aim of winning enough of them.

Home teams in capitals:

Redskins vs. (-3) Bengals in London

The Bengals have so far beaten bad teams (MIA, NYJ, CLE), and lost badly to very good teams (DAL, NE, PIT, DEN).  Washington don’t seem to be either, and they’re inconsistent.  Avoid.

Bet: no bet.

(-2.5) Jets at BROWNS

These are the bottom two ranked teams in DVOA.  The Jets are a little bit better generally, and have a tonne more upside.

Bet: Jets -2.5

(-3) Seahawks at SAINTS

The Saints are giving up 30 points a game on average, and much like the Chiefs, it’s hard to see the Seahawks giving up that many, even in the Superdome.  And they’re a mile better team.

Bet: Seahawks -3.

(-2.5) Chiefs at COLTS

The Colts have been in every game this season, usually because of Luck and Hilton performing some sort of 4th quarter miracle.  Luck’s been troubled by good pass rushing this season, but the Chiefs are missing Houston, and are last in sacks in 2016.  Moncrief and Dorsett are back too. The risk: the Colts have been struggling against the run.   With some points on offer, and at home, with low confidence…

Bet:  Colts +2.5

Lions at (-2.5) TEXANS

As above: the Lions have been in every game this season, and usually because of the heroics of Matt Stafford.  These two teams are 28th and 30th in DVOA, so in advanced stats, despite having winning records, they’re terrible.  With the same level of low confidence, take the points.

Bet: Lions +2.5

(-6) Patriots at BILLS

I think the Patriots will be ready across the field for the Bills this time, and for a change, they’re reasonably healthy.

Bet:  Patriots -6. 

Raiders at (-1.5) BUCS

The Bucs are horribly inconsistent, and Raiders’ only losses were against the Chiefs and Falcons – who aren’t world-beaters, but they’re above average.  They’ve been able to beat the bad teams, and you’re getting some points.

Bet: Raiders +1.5.

Cardinals at (-2.5) PANTHERS

This line has been set by someone who still thinks it’s the 2015 NFC Championship.  The Cards are 10th in DVOA, and the Panthers are 24th.  No-one seems to be able to stop David Johnson, and the Panthers pass D doesn’t seem to be able to stop anyone.  The Panthers might find last year’s form, but it’s not the way to bet.

Bet: Cardinals +2.5.

Chargers at (-6) BRONCOS

The Chargers won the reverse fixture well three weeks ago, although it’ll be much tougher in Denver.  Avoid.

Bet: no bet.

Packers at (-2.5) FALCONS

These two teams are evenly matched in DVOA (7th and 8th respectively) – the Packers have been a much better team than the criticism they’ve been getting.  Tevin Coleman’s out, and he’s been a hugely important piece for the Falcons.  Avoid & enjoy.

Bet:  no bet.

Eagles at (-4.5) COWBOYS

Dez Bryant is back for the Cowboys, but against the league’s best passing defence, the Cowboys won’t be throwing the ball.  Except maybe to Dak’s favourite target Beasley, after the Eagles lost slot corner Ron Brooks.  Four & a half’s a little too big probably.

Bet: no bet.

(-5) Vikings at BEARS

Cutler’s back, so Jeffrey and Meredith might be able to make some plays.  The Vikings defence might get some turnovers too.

Bet: Vikings -5.  

SEASON RECORD: 29-29