Gamblers Guide to NRL Week 6
Naturally, the NRL clubs are trying to fuck up a gift of $1.6 billion.
The NSW State Government has decided it’ll pump $1.6 billion into stadiums that will be primarily used for rugby league, and have simply asked that 65 of the 200 NRL games a year be played at one of the 3 venues. But no – the clubs are not having that.
2 clubs want all the money spent on the stadium they play at, despite filling 20% of it. 4 clubs want to keep using their shitty grassy-knoll, chainlink fence, inadequate facility shitholes with no drainage. Manly are usually suing or being sued by Brookvale, but fuck no, they’re not moving any games, claiming it’s in their 1947-written ‘constitution’. The Wests Tigers and Dragons want to keep TWO of these shitholes going each. Meanwhile, the Roosters are pissed other clubs might get cash to play at their ground.
Sure, if you’re a taxpayer, you should be firing cannons at Baird blowing $1.6 billion of your money on refurbishing 3 perfectly good stadiums that get filled 3 times a year while leaving them in the same shitty locations. Ripping down and rebuilding Parramatta Stadium is lunacy. Spending $750 million on ANZ when it’s not even 20 years old is golden batshit. But it’s typical of the clubs that they can’t even get their shit together enough to accept those gifts.
NRL clubs having been fucking each other, and the competition, up since Balmain didn’t turn up to the 1909 grand final. Their crowning achievement of course, was the Super League abortion of 1995-97. They’ve learnt zero.
Great Moments in Journalism
Gus Gould spewed forth a couple of thousand words this week on how players are now robots and he’d like them to think more. The article had two of Gus’s great soapbox hallmarks: a) he makes one broad statement, and then crams any obscure example into it like there is no alternative for the next 2,000 words/80 minutes of commentary, and b) completely ignores all evidence to the contrary.
The coaching of rugby league at all levels these days has been advanced to the point where most of the “thinking” has been taken out of the game.
I’ve been reading “Players are robots” articles since I picked up my first Rugby League Week in 1980. Gus forgets that if you’ve got 13 players on a team all “thinking”, whatever the level, we end up with a gigantic, error-ridden abortion of a game for the 80 minutes we intend to watch. Like, imagine watching 26 Chris Sandows run around. It’s an entertainment product – you don’t want too many of the performers going out on a limb. It’s the same reason you don’t want a creative surgeon trying things out during your kidney transplant.
Rugby league – in fact all sport – is not rocket science. You’re trying to get past 13 guys to cram a ball into a grassy rectangle. Somewhere between zero and one is the correct number of players thinking per team. Anything else is asking for a mess.
I like to occasionally remind the dickheads I see making tips that real men only bet the lines. Tipping competitions are for fairies. It also helps me explain away why I lose money on everything but the NFL. I still feel manly. But there’s a few trends from 2016’s games so far:
- Home field advantage should be discounted unless it’s a genuine home field.
- Those 5 day turnarounds really cripple teams.
- There are a shit-tonne of close games. Only two games last week had a margin of more than 8 points. The bookies, like most punters, me included, are completely ignoring this.
Home teams in CAPS.
BRONCOS (-14.5) v Dragons
You can resign yourself to the fact that the Broncos will have double-digit spreads until Origin or some sort of crushing defeat.
By the way, I don’t know what he’s like internally, but Corey Parker has been a mighty impressive captain on-field and with the media.
After I bigged the Dragons’ defence up last week, they promptly shit the bed and blew up 36 to the Cowboys. Shitheads. They’re averaging 8 points a game on offense. Double shitheads.
Bet: no bet.
RABBITOHS (-6.5) v Roosters
The Roosters-Warriors game last week set an NRL record for the first game ever with more missed tackles than tackles.
The problem with a face and demeanour like Trent Robinson’s is that when you’re winning it seems like quiet genius, but when you’re losing it seems like meat-headed, tumbleweed-brained baffoon along for the ride.
The Chooks pattern this season has been to either lose by 40 or 2. Maybe they’ll win one day, but they’ve shown not many signs of being better than when the Rabbits hosed them 5 weeks ago.
Bet: Rabbitohs -6.5….. or you can get $3.00 on the Rabbitohs 1-12 with William Hill.
One of the great things about Saturday football is knowing you’ll get to hear Brandy Alexander talk through every single second of every single Bunker review, confuse himself, and change his mind on whether it’s a try 3 or 4 times. Just let the play run a bit Boof – maybe shut up for 5 seconds . You’re not explaining it to the blind.
EELS (-4.5) v Raiders
Gutherson is your early leader in the “Worst Buy Of The Season” Award. His hands are worse than his haircut.
Danny Wicks is on the other end of the spectrum. I’m starting to think a season in hokey might be the best thing for some of these tubbier forwards. Workouts in the yard. All-preservative diet. 23 hour lockdown keeps them off the booze/KFC. Improved dexterity from the number plate program. Add some supporters by joining a prison gang. It’s worked for Wicks and Packer.
The Raiders continued their schizophrenic season with a baffling tooling of the Bulldogs. Typically though, at no point did they bother grinding out the win. It’s a loser to bet for or against them.
Bet: no bet.
WARRIORS (-8) v Sea Eagles
That Roosters game was PURE WARRIORS. Out to a big lead, blow it. Kick in front again, blow it. 28-all, 20 yards out, 2 minutes and Isaac Luke tries a me-first dummy half run instead of setting up Johnson for the field goal, and gives the Roosters one last shot. Then make the entire thing moot by running 80 metres for the winning try off a kick return. McFadden will lose all his hair if they keep this up.
The best way to bet Warriors games in just to bet in-play. If they’re up huge, bet the opposition. If they’re down huge, bet the Warriors. It’s like day trading for stocks.
I suspect their big three are rounding into some form, but until we’re sure, they’re out of the Trust Tree.
Bet: no bet.
PANTHERS v Cowboys (-2)
Remember when you used to play park footy, and you were hung over? You’d get involved enough to kick on the last, and stand at first receiver to sling the ball out to someone who was actually running just to stay involved. Maybe you flopped on as the third man in the tackle. But no running, no getting tackled, and no real tackling. You were a bit fat, and had a bit of growth. You were hanging in to take a huge beer shit at full time. That is 2016 Jamie Soward.
The Cowboys have scored 76-0 in their last two games, so -2 is a BIZARRE line, even away from home.
Bet: Cowboys -2.
Don’t cancel any Sunday BBQs or pissups for this slate.
SHARKS (-10.5) v Titans
The Sharkies have this competition all figured out: just play football for 40 minutes each week, and hang in there for the other 40.
Thank god we don’t have to watch Greg Bird at 5/8 again. He was awful. They must have asked him to kick the ball at training so they could have a look right? The last decent kick he made was booting Shane Marteene in the head a dozen years ago. (Not to be confused with smashing a tumbler into someone’s head or pissing on a police car. Or the coke arrest).
Bet: Titans +10.5
KNIGHTS v Tigers (-1.5)
All bets relating to Tigers matches should be money-back if James Tedesco does not play the full 80 minutes or those idiot Tigers’ halves don’t get him good ball once every set.
The Knights average less than 15 points a game on offense, and Trent Hodgkinson misses that many in tackles.
Bet: Tedesco Tigers -1.5
STORM (-2.5) v Bulldogs
Cameron Smith blew up in the press conference last week to complain about the 5-day turnarounds and the idiocy of the Knights having 5 days between away games in Auckland and Melbourne. Let it go, Cam. It would have taken anyone with any intelligence maybe 3-4 hours to have a good look at the draw and avoid those type of things. The NRL don’t give a fuck about the players, and even if they did, they don’t have anyone intelligent enough to spend 3-4 hours a year and fix the draw so it doesn’t happen. They’re too busy making important decisions like whether to wear a tie to appeal to corporates, or go open neck to be ‘more rugby league’. Just take your $1.2 million a year and shut the fuck up.
After that bed-shitting against the Raiders in RETURN TO BELMORE!, the Bulldogs are out of the Trust Tree too.
Bet: no bet.
SEASON RECORD: 11-13
How Much Should Daly Cherry-Evans Make This Week?
E. Refund the fans.
DCE is using his downtime to write some me-first columns.
But despite me being out, I know the team can continue to grow.
Daley, that should read “Now that I am out, the team can actually grow”.
With his third-party cash, Daly makes $1.2 million for 24 games. He can’t afford to be taking weeks off here and there. Their kicking game – the only part he usually helps – was awful. Refund the fans $50,000.
Celebrity Tipster Bet of the Week
We put in a call to Australia’s most beloved and respected politician, golf course owner, nickel miner and Titanic II builder, Clive Palmer, to get his Tip of the Week.
(Stuffs down last of packet of Tim Tams) “Ah, fuck the NRL. Me and sport have a bit of a love-hate relationship. I love it and it hates me. That fat fuck Lazarus has done nothing but fuck me up since I got the prick elected. That charlatan Lowy skinned me out of 30 million bucks on that fucking Gold Coast soccer team. That golf course I bought went straight to shit. And when Searly was getting kicked out of the Titans, I went to a game and the crowd chanted ‘You’re Just a Fatter Nathan Tinkler’.
(Inhales an entire calzone)
Let me see…..Who did Lazarus play for? The Raiders? OK, then, I pick Parramatta by 100.”
CELEBRITY TIPS RECORD: 1-8
This one comes from Jeremy in Scarborough:
“Despite having a full-time job, my wife is making me do up the house on the weekends. Making a patio, ripping up flooring and putting new floors down, digging trenches. Since we saved money by not paying some blokes to do it that would have taken a tenth of the time, am I legally allowed to parlay that money into a boys weekend?”
You poor bastard. No, unfortunately, under Wife Law, you’re expected to spend any financial windfalls arrived at by your hard work (bonuses or savings) SPENDING TIME TOGETHER. We’re talking brunch with other couples, sampling new pestos, purchasing more goods from IKEA that match the colour of the new flooring, maybe a new coat of varnish on the “sitting chair” in the bedroom. Definitely getting some new throw pillows. Maybe a chalkboard for the kitchen where you can write cute notes to each other. See, owning a home means pissing away all of your money on shit that, as a man, you won’t even notice three days after you have purchased it.
You must celebrate the shininess of your house refurbishment with the purchase of more things that symbolise your general togetherness – note that these will not be things you want, like electronics. They will be things only women know exist. Ergo, never own a home with a girlfriend or spouse.
Music Tune of the Week – GNR, Live at the Ritz
The Gunners played a $10 gig at the Troubadour in LA this week, 30-odd years after they first started playing there. It’s the start of their reunion tour, and attracted the likes of Nic Cage, Jim Carrey and Dice Clay. Slash is the only one with even a remote similarity to the heyday, as despite having a pacemaker fitted, he’s managed to stay awesome. McKagan looks like he could die any minute. Adler actually had a stroke, and is now palsy. Izzy Stradlin didn’t even open the invite. And Axl Rose ignored all the people who told him that they hadn’t worked all of the bugs out of facelifts yet. Should be an interesting tour.
Relevant Movie Quote of the Week from The Princess Bride:
“I’ll explain and I’ll use small words so that you’ll be sure to understand, you warthog faced buffoon.”
- What Cameron Smith probably said to Todd Greenberg about the scheduling.
Beer of the Week:
Spotted in a London pub. Jesus Christ.
Flush that turd
Your 2016 Coaching Hot Seat list:
- Jason Taylor – Tas should immediately donate his salary to James Tedesco. The Tigers would be winless and getting beat by 30 every week if he’d gone to the Raiders with Ricky.
- Brad Arthur – former hobo Brad Arthur said behind closed door this week that he might have a couple more wins if Corey Norman would just rupture a medial ligament or, preferably, a spleen.
- Andrew McFadden – two from two! Safe for another month.
- Neil Henry – Henry forgot the Golden Rule of Rugby League: never bag a former player in the week you play them. Idiot.
- Rick Stuart – Rick won just his third game out of 16 against Dessie Hasler, and was last seen shouting “Fuck you, mop head!” In the general direction of the grandstand. If you can explain to me how the Raiders can crush the Dogs like that for 80 minutes away but not beat the Gold Coast at home, I’ll tell you what Ricky really said to Ashley Klein.
- Trent Barrett – this week’s Barrett PR Hand Job involved him being hailed for pulling the bus in at a pub after their first win of the season. No coach has ever had the bar set so low.
Gratuitous Cheerleader Pic of the Week
She looks like a goer.